Obama Led in Pledge Delegates From Day 1 till the end!

Okay, I know we are not done yet, but we are basically winding down as the last contest roll on out.  I was sitting on my comfy couch next to my beautiful wife discussing the race and I started reflecting back over the last couple of months.  It’s been a lot of ups and downs, some stressful days and some jubilant days mixed in.  Then it hit me.  Senator Barack Obama has never lost the lead in the pledge delegate race, never, he’s held it since day one.  Let’s take a quick trip in the way back machine and look at how things shaped up...

The early contest:  Iowa, surprise winner, Barack Obama, surprise second place, John Edwards, surprise third, Hillary Clinton.  On January 3, 2008 Senator Barack Obama shocked the world and shook up the race by grabbing the lead in the only statistic that matters in the Democratic race for the White House, and never looked back.  The following week Hillary jumped into a win, but as the night closed, she left tied with Senator Obama, in NH, but trailing in the race as she could not cut into his lead.  The next contest that counted was Nevada, which went to Hillary... but wait.  Senator Obama won the pledge delegate count of that  race by grabbing 13 to her 12.  Three contest down and he still had the lead.

South Carolina:  The game changer.  Heavily favored the weeks ahead of the contest Hillary was looking to walk through SC and cruise into Super Tuesday.  The problem was that suddenly she wasn’t favored in SC anymore.  Obama had a huge double digit win in the popular vote and in the delegate count.  Suddenly the padding in that small delegate lead was starting to get thicker.

Super Tuesday:  Obama had won more states and more pledged delegates.  Camp Clinton had expected a huge win and to close the deal on Feb. 5, 2008.  Problem is that Senator Obama once again padded his pledged delegate lead.  She claimed to be the winner because she had won the big states, but those peskey numbers didn’t lie, she lost Super Tuesday.  Obama now had a lead and it was going to be hard to erase it.  What to do??????

After Super Tuesday: Clinton plan of attack... Let him win 12 straight.  Not a smart plan as we have all noticed, but they were in a bind.  Suddenly they were out of money and had finally sat down to figure out the math and the whole allocation system.  There was no original plan for after Super Tuesday.  They looked at the map and decided to compete in the next election.  Problem was it took them 3 day to decided what to do and Obama was already hitting the airwaves and the field running.  After losing the next primary they took another step back and decided to wait a month before making a serious play for those pesky pledge delegates.  Over the next month camp Obama padded his pledged delegate lead and didn’t look back.

Rough Patch & End Game:  The attacks came and went and even though he lost OH, then TX, then won TX, then won MS and WY, then lost PA, then won Guam, then won NC and narrowly lost IN, he maintained his lead and is on his way to a run in November.  WV will come next and then KY.  Despite expected blowout wins in those 2 states OR where he is favored, will come the same day as KY and on May 20th, victory will be proclaimed.  At that point it will be statistically impossible for Clinton to surpass him in the pledged delegate lead no matter what the outcome of the final contest.

Final Result.  Senator Barack Obama led the contest on day 1, and held that lead to the very end.

Senator Barack Obama, Soon To Be The Democratic Presumptive Nominee.