TN GOP is playing with fire. Barack Obama stated today "Lay off my wife." People in the MSM saw this as an empty passing warning, nothing more. He said that the TN GOP "needs to think long and hard," about the tactics they are using. The MSM didn’t sit and think about this at all, not surprising.... What exactly was Obama implying? What was his threat? Senator Bob Corker understands and is trying to make the TN GOP see what he sees.
Late today Senator Bob Corker released a statement warning his state party to back away from their latest attack on Michelle Obama. If you haven’t seen the attack looky here.
We all know Obama is working a 50 state stategy, but we all know some states won’t get as much attention as others. TN might be one of those states. In 2004 Kerry lost the state by 13% or 347,898 votes, but Senator Bob Corker had a heck of a time taking down Harold Ford Jr, squeaking by with only 50k more votes than Jr. Here is how I see it. Obama was saying, cut it out or I’m coming to TN. Now he may not be able to win, but he could make it competitive. I think he knows this. If he came to Tennessee the RNC, and TN GOP will have to waste a ton of money to counter his campaign. Obama knows he’ll have the money to mess with TN if he wants to and Corker knows this.
What you should know about Corker in 2006: Bob Corker is a Moderate Republican who took down his Republican rivals with a dirty campaign where he rode the middle and allowed the others to spit the evangelical vote. After securing the nomination he suddenly moved towards the right to grab the evangelical vote, but a lot wouldn’t come onboard. Then when the polls got close because of Jr. traveling the state running as a moderate democrat and talking a lot about God, Corker had to move back towards the center because the far right was not buying into his sudden change of heart... Sound like anyone we know??????? Yep, McCain.
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ANALYZING THE STATE:
Romney and Huckabee (evangelicals) accounted for 58% of the vote. McCain barley lost the TN primary to Huckabee only carring 32% of the vote to Hucabee's 34% and campaigning very hard here.
Here is the party break down by votes 586,452 Democrats came out to vote for the 2008 primary
526,470 Republicans came out to vote for the 2008 primary
59,982 More Democrats voted than Republicans
The last is a notable figure because it follows the trend started in 2006. Ford Jr. was able to carry 32 counties compared to Kerry’s 18. Ford introduced rural TN to an African American candidate. Like him or not, he ran a remarkable race for a Democrat in TN and only came up 50k votes short.
The way he was able to do this was by not only working the state like a mad man, but Republican voter turnout was not what the party hoped for in 2006 and Ford was able to win some cross-overs. If you look at the counties he picked-up that Kerry couldn’t carry, it was because Republican turnout was below expectations while Democratic turnout remained steady, especially for a mid term election. From what I've heard in that state Republican voters were not happy with their candidate, not happy with a Republican who had lived in the middle until he decided to run for senate, and they were getting tired of Bush. Ford's relatives didn’t help him when they ran into a few problems during his campaign. Lets just say the FBI and bribes were involved. Also working against him was the fact that Republicans were able to get a same sex marriage ban on the ballot, but despite these two major factors, Republican turnout wasn’t what was hoped for.
Meanwhile, Gov. Phil Bredeson (D) carried every single county in the state of TN in his bid for re-election, EVERY SINGLE ONE!
The Democratic brand is not dead in TN. Corker knows this, the TN GOP needs to learn this, and Obama needs to take notice. Republican moral is lower there than it was in 2006 and I have gotten a lot of Obamacins on our side. The Republican brand is worn, McCain isn't like by many in his party, and the timing is just right for change. I can’t predict a win for Obama here, but he can make it competitive. Besides TV, he didn't campaign here during the primaryies. If the TN GOP keeps taking shots at his wife, I suspect we'll see multiple visits to the volunteer state and Bob Tuke may be the beneficiary.
P.S. Don't buy into Corker. He is not our friend. His statement was not meant as goodwill. He's got a shady history in TN, he's got lots of oil friends, and he has an agenda. He doesn't want Obama running in TN.
UPDATE: A lot of people here are down on TN and think I'm smoking crack or something... I understand, but the name of the game is getting Republicans to spend cash here. Make it competitive, don't give up on a state just because we lost the primary. That is Clinton's argument. I know what I am hearing on the ground and it's encouraging. I leave you with this...
Somone asked how do we win in a state that went overwhelmingly for Bush in 2004? The same way we won seats in LA, MS, and IL. We were never supposed to win there, never..., and this is not 2004 people, the Republican brand is tarnished. Put on your game faces and get to work. I know I'll be out in my home state working my ass off to make TN competitive and hopefully, one day turn this state blue again!
