I was surprised to visit Yahoo this morning and see this headline, “If Romney loses Ohio, Obama wins big."
(Full Video via the link above)
So we all know that the road to 270 is an uphill climb for Romney. We know that the Obama campaign is well aware of this and we know that the Romney campaign is aware of this. National Polls are nice, like today's Gallup which has the President gaining a point advantage over the challenger
Gallup National Tracking
Obama 50 (unchanged)
Romney 43 (-1)
And today's "Lehman" moment that has been so well documented all over the meida will not help Mr. Romney's cause, but the polls that matter are the key battleground states and man is it hard to see a path for Romney.
Every media outlet has what they believe are still battleground states. ABC is no different and they have a small write-up / video that was on Yahoo’s front pages this morning (still up as of this post going live) about the difficult road ahead for Romney. Yes, they still try to make it appear as a close race, and try to appear as if Obama has a little trouble, but the meat of it spells out, Obama is winning, has a clear advantage, and Romney needs a miracle. We all know this already, but it is finally nice to see a media outlet realizing the truth. IT IS ALL ABOUT ARITHMETIC!
The current state of the electoral college map must be a difficult one for Romney to look at -- all eight of those swing states voted for Obama four years ago. When you zoom in a bit, little Ohio is just enormous in 2012. If Ohio's 18 electoral votes go to Obama, it would be almost impossible for Romney to win; if he lost Ohio, the Republican candidate would have to take just about every other battleground state to get to the White House.
And they justify those statements by looking at their latest round of polling.
Obama not only got a post-convention bounce, more respondents also said they trust the president is better at handling the economy than Romney would be. And you can't win these swing states -- especially a place like Ohio and its 18 electoral votes -- if voters don't think you can do a better job on the economy.
Now the Romney campaign has said that if they lose Ohio then they still have a shot so long as they keep Florida as a firewall. We all know that is bull and the math just won’t work out because as the report pointed out, he would have to run the table on all remaining states, which all went to Obama in 2008, and nearly all polling in Obama’s favor in 2012, if even just by a few points. Those few points are very very difficult to make up when you have so few undecided and when the Obama campaign is rocking it with their micro-campaigning, something that Romney’s campaign has admitted the democrats were a lot better at.
Another thing that makes it difficult is some of those states that are white on ABC’s map are blue on other media outlets electoral maps, Nevada for instance along with New Hampshire. Take those states off and the math gets harder for Romney. If you noticed ABC has Florida shaded a light blue. Take Florida off and this story shouldn’t even be on the interwebs because the election is over, (it is my opinion that Florida is not light blue just yet, but will be come election day).
What this means? Work your tail off! Don’t let up! Keep fighting! Romney is playing from behind. The media knows this, but is reluctant to state it as it messes with the narrative. Republicans know this and are reluctant to admit defeat publicly, although some have. Romney will be throwing everything he has, trying everything he can (as we saw in his terrible blunder today) to try and gain some traction. We need to hold and make roads in the battlegrounds, but don’t forget as ABC so nicely put it, If Romney loses Ohio, Obama wins big.